Wisdom of Crowds redux

Limitless Win has just finished, it’s time to announce who won the incredible £7.99 cash prize for being closest to the mean average win of all the teams who took part in S1 of Limitless Win, and looking at my spreadsheet I can see that the winner with a guess of £112,097 compared to the ACTUAL average of £110,625 is German TV’s very own Nico W! Well done Nico.

Let’s see how you did – bear in mind your guesses were taken before the show had started filming and with only a basic idea of what the show was (and with no indication as to how the ladder worked):

RANGE: £8,560 – £487,500
Mean Avg Guess: £104,695.53
Median Guess: £69,500

Your mean guess was actually very good – Just six grand off the actual figure, despte a range that spanned almost half a million quid. Your median guess was well under though.

But it’s a show called Limitless Win and this comes with expectations – as a tie breaker we asked what the highest amount “in play” would be – again you had to guess without knowing the make up of the ladder:

RANGE: £45,000 – £8,500,000
Mean Avg Guess: £1,620,459.20
Median Guess: £1,125,000

The range much more wide-ranging here, as it is your mean guess was well over the actual answer of £1,000,000 which I think is fair expectation given the way the show is pitched. However your median guess was extremely good considering.

Maybe we’ll do this again next year! Or maybe we won’t.